崇幄 发表于 2018-12-14 10:47 啊哈哈，好不容易找准了东北山脊线的我，对南面的线没啥认知；只是一直奇怪，与西北山脊看上去在同一直线上的西南山脊为啥没有登顶记录，连尝试的记录都极少（也许首登的侦察算一次），看上去似乎与西北山脊差别不大 |
skyeagles 发表于 2018-12-14 11:16 其实14座8000米中的每一座都有难度很高的大岩壁，假设14座8000米的组织提高标准，只认可沿这些壁上路线完成的登顶，那么全世界可能没有一人合格，非阿式高手更没可能，因为这些路线是无法找到夏尔巴帮忙的，再说夏尔巴只想混口饭吃，没必要冒这种风险 |
崇幄 发表于 2018-12-14 12:26 我说的意思是把那些高难度的攀登呈现给大家看，让大家心里有谱，不像之前你说了一句如果天气好，业余选手都能登上贡嘎，被好多人喷，刺穿了他的神功抗体了。而我一直就认为，能在上世纪30年代能登顶的山，现在科技进步，人的身体素质也会更加适应高寒，还有天气预报大数据分析得出来的结论比以前要强无数倍等等，如果把这些有利的因素全应用到登山当中去，贡嘎山绝对不是网络说的那么神乎其神，跟个馒头山不会差多少。8000以上是生命禁区，大岩石是没法攀。记得在一个贴子里看过，意大利那个争14座的女登山者，第一座爬就是去爬K2，好像还差一百多米就到顶了，最后发现没有路了，不就是一块大石头在上面挡在那里。 |
skyeagles 发表于 2018-12-15 18:02 我收回之前说过的话，对攀登贡嘎的业余爱好者而言，天气好的话，仅限现在的西北山脊路线，1982年西北山脊路线超难，美国队后半段要绕道北壁才能登顶，至于贡嘎主峰的其它线路，即使顶级选手，也不会有100%的把握，但他们中部分人至少可以保证全身而退 |
崇幄 发表于 2018-12-15 20:07 哎，说什么好呢，只因为这个行业太特殊，危险性太大，在和平年代大家享受一口安乐饭吃就满足了，一般人是不会参与其中，所以去谈难度是综合性的，还有很大一分部运气成份，不是高海拔大岩壁那种需要绝对实力。像这种靠天靠运气而不是靠绝对实力登顶的，要把它说成很难我是不怎么赞成的。还有一个问题说贡嘎山这里的天气异常多端，几年前我看到一些人买山买的天气预报服务都是从国外买的，自己都不提供这个服务，何来的天气异常多端，很明显的托词说成正当的理由。还有像一年能登上去500多人的珠峰，要是把那些梯子都扯掉（包括南坡昆布冰川那些），看一年能上得去几个人？贡嘎的商业开发不可能像珠峰，就像经济特区不可能设在内陆城市一样，7字头就是比不了8字头。俄罗斯K2西壁那次攀登，就有一个新人上去了，第一次8K哦就是登K2西壁，网上应该还有视频，我电脑好像也还存着，那有些石头几十米高，都不是垂直的90度坡度，而是突出来了，前面的人不知道是怎么爬上去的，后面的都是用绳子拉上去的，那线路看得你心惊肉跳，再看贡嘎哪条路线，都是大马路，高速路。当然，贡嘎哪条路都存在危机，再厉害的也随时会丢掉小命。所以，你说业余爱好，不知道俄罗斯那个新手（好像叫波波洛夫）算不算，在好的天气周期里，贡嘎哪条路线都可以挑战。 |
skyeagles 发表于 2018-12-16 11:36 研究了一下你说的俄罗斯K2西壁，也看了Sergey B上传的Official movie of Russian National team on K2, West face，长达1小时2分。 这条路线AAJ介绍确实是K2上最难的路线，完成于2007，没得到金冰镐认可的原因，是因为俄罗斯的攀登方式是围攻而非阿式，你说用绳子自己拉自己的攀登方式叫Aid，这种攀登方式也是不被金冰镐提倡的，记得美国队历时三年搞定的鲨鱼鳍线路就是在最后阶段使用aid才成功，但这次攀登竞争金冰镐失利；另外，山上本身存在小气候，买的天气预报事实上存在很大误差，作为一个能真正做到全身而退的阿式高手，必须懂得利用气压计的变化事先预测那些能把人吹下山脊的强风 |
| 本帖最后由 崇幄 于 2018-12-16 15:37 编辑 备注一下俄罗斯的k2西壁线路 K2, west face. Applying the tactics they used successfully on the north face of Jannu in 2004 and the direct north face of Mt. Everest the same year, a Russian team made the first ascent of the west face of K2 (8,611m). After a siege of two and a half months, an extremely strong team completed what is almost certainly the hardest route on the world’s second-highest peak. Arriving at their 5,000m base camp on June 7, 16 climbers, most of whom had taken part in the Jannu and Everest expeditions, began fixing ropes and establishing camps on a previously unattempted line left of the west ridge. After initial snow slopes above the Savoia Glacier, the meat of the route is formed by a mixed rock buttress that rises from 6,500m to 7,850m. Although a prominent curving couloir skirts the buttress on the left, the Russians chose to tackle a direct and far more difficult line up the center. They established Camp 2 immediately below the buttress and set to work on the steep rock wall above. The initial section was as hard as Jannu; above, the angle was not as extreme but the difficulties were still sustained. Operating in small, close-knit teams without recourse to supplementary oxygen, the expedition battled through inclement weather to reach the top of the bastion on July 30. Here, they placed Camp 6. Bad weather stopped activity for a few days, but then Alexey Bolotov, Gennady Kirievsky, and Nikolay Totmjanin moved back up the mountain, spent four days in Camp 5 waiting for a weather window, and on August 10 left Camp 6 for a summit push. Deep snow, at times up to their chests, slowed them considerably, and at 8,500m they hit an unexpected vertical rock step. Unable to find a way through, the exhausted trio retreated. On August 21 the weather allowed the Russians another shot. On the previous day they had established a seventh camp at 8,400m, and in the morning Andrey Mariev and Vadim Popovich found better snow and took a different line to reach the summit. The next day nine other members followed them: Bolotov and Totmjanin, and then Gleb Sokolov, Eugeny Vinogradsky, the three-man team of Vitaly Gorelik, Gennady Kirievsky, and Victor Volodin, and finally Pavel Shabalin and Ilias Tukhvatullin. This was a particularly notable effort for Popovich, who had never climbed an 8,000m peak, and for Shabalin and Tukhvatullin, who spent three nights at or above 8,150m before reaching the summit. Shabalin and Solokov both became grandfathers during the climb. The team descended via the same route, leaving most of their fixed ropes and camps on the mountain. Two climbers were evacuated by helicopter because of injuries or illness, in mid-July and early August. Lindsay Griffin, Mountain INFO Editor, adapted from www.alpinist.com  The west face of K2 (8611m) from 6900m on Savoia Kangri. The left skyline is the northwest ridge, which so far is unclimbed in its entirety. The right skyline is the southwest ridge: Magic Line (Bozik-Prezemyslov-Piasecki-Wroz, 1986). The blue line is the west ridge with A1 the original finish (summit reached by Ohtani and Sabir in 1981). A2 is the line taken by Osamu Tanabe's Japanese expedition in 1997. This team followed the 1981 route to ca. 7800m, cut back to the crest of the west ridge at ca. 8000m, traversed across the upper west face to a col on the northwest ridge, continued across to the top of the north ridge (hidden), and up easy snow to the summit. The red line marks the new Russian Direct (eleven climbers led by Pavel Shabalin, 2007). [Photo] The Jules Cartwright Trust |
崇幄 发表于 2018-12-16 15:36 这个太牛X了，超高海拔+大岩壁，具备这种实力的国人，之前没有过，之后也没有（我可以大胆预测）。如果把贡嘎常规线路（西北和西南山脊）拿来和它作比较，假设天气条件差不多，两者的难度对比，K2这条线路如果打10分的话，贡嘎可能也就2，3分，撑死4分。 |
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